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ARDL

A collection of 1 Post

econometrics housing forecasting Seattle ARDL VECM

Forecasting Seattle's Housing Market: An Econometric Approach Using NWMLS Data

How do you build a credible multi-year forecast for a metropolitan housing market that went through a once-in-a-generation structural shock? That’s the quest...

03 Mar, 2026
8 min read

LightGBM

A collection of 1 Post

machine learning LightGBM R forecasting property tax panel data assessed-value king-county

Forecasting Seattle Property Assessed Values with LightGBM: Macro Conditioning, Three Tracks, and the 2026 April Forecast

Property tax revenue is one of the most stable and significant funding streams for municipal governments, but “stable” doesn’t mean easy to predict. Assessed...

18 Apr, 2026
14 min read

R

A collection of 1 Post

machine learning LightGBM R forecasting property tax panel data assessed-value king-county

Forecasting Seattle Property Assessed Values with LightGBM: Macro Conditioning, Three Tracks, and the 2026 April Forecast

Property tax revenue is one of the most stable and significant funding streams for municipal governments, but “stable” doesn’t mean easy to predict. Assessed...

18 Apr, 2026
14 min read

Seattle

A collection of 1 Post

econometrics housing forecasting Seattle ARDL VECM

Forecasting Seattle's Housing Market: An Econometric Approach Using NWMLS Data

How do you build a credible multi-year forecast for a metropolitan housing market that went through a once-in-a-generation structural shock? That’s the quest...

03 Mar, 2026
8 min read

VECM

A collection of 1 Post

econometrics housing forecasting Seattle ARDL VECM

Forecasting Seattle's Housing Market: An Econometric Approach Using NWMLS Data

How do you build a credible multi-year forecast for a metropolitan housing market that went through a once-in-a-generation structural shock? That’s the quest...

03 Mar, 2026
8 min read

assessed-value

A collection of 2 Posts

machine learning LightGBM R forecasting property tax panel data assessed-value king-county

Forecasting Seattle Property Assessed Values with LightGBM: Macro Conditioning, Three Tracks, and the 2026 April Forecast

Property tax revenue is one of the most stable and significant funding streams for municipal governments, but “stable” doesn’t mean easy to predict. Assessed...

18 Apr, 2026
14 min read
assessed-value major-office king-county data-visualization

Seattle's Biggest Office Buildings Lost Half Their Assessed Value in Three Years

An interactive look at how Seattle's ten largest major office parcels shed roughly $3 billion in appraised assessed value between 2019 and 2026.

07 Apr, 2026
2 min read

data-visualization

A collection of 1 Post

assessed-value major-office king-county data-visualization

Seattle's Biggest Office Buildings Lost Half Their Assessed Value in Three Years

An interactive look at how Seattle's ten largest major office parcels shed roughly $3 billion in appraised assessed value between 2019 and 2026.

07 Apr, 2026
2 min read

econometrics

A collection of 1 Post

econometrics housing forecasting Seattle ARDL VECM

Forecasting Seattle's Housing Market: An Econometric Approach Using NWMLS Data

How do you build a credible multi-year forecast for a metropolitan housing market that went through a once-in-a-generation structural shock? That’s the quest...

03 Mar, 2026
8 min read

forecasting

A collection of 2 Posts

machine learning LightGBM R forecasting property tax panel data assessed-value king-county

Forecasting Seattle Property Assessed Values with LightGBM: Macro Conditioning, Three Tracks, and the 2026 April Forecast

Property tax revenue is one of the most stable and significant funding streams for municipal governments, but “stable” doesn’t mean easy to predict. Assessed...

18 Apr, 2026
14 min read
econometrics housing forecasting Seattle ARDL VECM

Forecasting Seattle's Housing Market: An Econometric Approach Using NWMLS Data

How do you build a credible multi-year forecast for a metropolitan housing market that went through a once-in-a-generation structural shock? That’s the quest...

03 Mar, 2026
8 min read

housing

A collection of 1 Post

econometrics housing forecasting Seattle ARDL VECM

Forecasting Seattle's Housing Market: An Econometric Approach Using NWMLS Data

How do you build a credible multi-year forecast for a metropolitan housing market that went through a once-in-a-generation structural shock? That’s the quest...

03 Mar, 2026
8 min read

king-county

A collection of 2 Posts

machine learning LightGBM R forecasting property tax panel data assessed-value king-county

Forecasting Seattle Property Assessed Values with LightGBM: Macro Conditioning, Three Tracks, and the 2026 April Forecast

Property tax revenue is one of the most stable and significant funding streams for municipal governments, but “stable” doesn’t mean easy to predict. Assessed...

18 Apr, 2026
14 min read
assessed-value major-office king-county data-visualization

Seattle's Biggest Office Buildings Lost Half Their Assessed Value in Three Years

An interactive look at how Seattle's ten largest major office parcels shed roughly $3 billion in appraised assessed value between 2019 and 2026.

07 Apr, 2026
2 min read

machine learning

A collection of 1 Post

machine learning LightGBM R forecasting property tax panel data assessed-value king-county

Forecasting Seattle Property Assessed Values with LightGBM: Macro Conditioning, Three Tracks, and the 2026 April Forecast

Property tax revenue is one of the most stable and significant funding streams for municipal governments, but “stable” doesn’t mean easy to predict. Assessed...

18 Apr, 2026
14 min read

major-office

A collection of 1 Post

assessed-value major-office king-county data-visualization

Seattle's Biggest Office Buildings Lost Half Their Assessed Value in Three Years

An interactive look at how Seattle's ten largest major office parcels shed roughly $3 billion in appraised assessed value between 2019 and 2026.

07 Apr, 2026
2 min read

panel data

A collection of 1 Post

machine learning LightGBM R forecasting property tax panel data assessed-value king-county

Forecasting Seattle Property Assessed Values with LightGBM: Macro Conditioning, Three Tracks, and the 2026 April Forecast

Property tax revenue is one of the most stable and significant funding streams for municipal governments, but “stable” doesn’t mean easy to predict. Assessed...

18 Apr, 2026
14 min read

property tax

A collection of 1 Post

machine learning LightGBM R forecasting property tax panel data assessed-value king-county

Forecasting Seattle Property Assessed Values with LightGBM: Macro Conditioning, Three Tracks, and the 2026 April Forecast

Property tax revenue is one of the most stable and significant funding streams for municipal governments, but “stable” doesn’t mean easy to predict. Assessed...

18 Apr, 2026
14 min read

Topics

econometrics housing forecasting Seattle ARDL VECM assessed-value major-office king-county data-visualization machine learning LightGBM R property tax panel data

Sean David Thompson

A website of random noise, and the meaning behind it. Here, I share ideas, tools, and methods of forecasting techniques and lessons from work. Dive in, get inspired, and feel free to share your thoughts!

Recent Posts

Forecasting Seattle Property Assessed Values with LightGBM: Macro Conditioning, Three Tracks, and the 2026 April Forecast

18 Apr, 2026

Seattle's Biggest Office Buildings Lost Half Their Assessed Value in Three Years

07 Apr, 2026

Forecasting Seattle's Housing Market: An Econometric Approach Using NWMLS Data

03 Mar, 2026

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